Pig futures waves again, 14000 is the bottom?Watch the sickle again

2022-05-18 0 By

Hog futures prices have soared for a year, yes!You are not wrong, I am not wrong, because the pig futures prices from the last day of the year of the rat, continued to rise for two more days in the year of the tiger, the increase of nearly 1000 yuan, which did not occur after the pig rebound in September last year.Don’t we allow two brothers to have fun during the Spring Festival?Aren’t they all happy about “tiger” now?So we have to analyze, this rise is just a flicker to go ah, or play a protracted war?Have a point of view please speak actively, want to copy bottom also sign up in time, let’s see long eyes is not bright.In fact, pigs from last September has been brewing market, so we need to analyze and judge from the logic of the main market in order to come to the conclusion of how to go in the future.First one can’t avoid the problem is the existence of pig cycle, pig enterprises are not like other industry once fell below the cost of production will stop production, and long cycle of price is lower than the cost of time is not short, according to the laws of the past is a year and a half, and judging from June 21 years later we pigs new loss cycle has come, according to past experience,This cycle is likely to last until late ’23 to early’ 24.However, the past experience does not mean that it will always be valid, because two major events have happened in the pig industry in the past few years. First, many other industries have entered the pig industry, which has greatly increased the supply of this market.The second major event is the listing of live pig futures, and the live pig industry chain has a place for hedging.It is inevitable that the increase of pig enterprises leads to the increase of supply, so how these industry giants can make money in the future development of the industry provides us with space to imagine.The first is that when they think prices are going to fall, they hedge their bets by shorting the futures market. Even if there is a loss on the spot, the gains on the futures market can cover it.The second thing is to take advantage of the price drop to reshuffle the industry. After all, large enterprises can rely on abundant funds to resist the winter, forcing small and medium-sized enterprises to gradually withdraw from the pig market under the continuous loss.We will discuss the latter later. The main data needed is the number of large domestic breeding enterprises and the number of small and medium-sized ones.What we’re talking about today is the capacity of the market when prices fall, and how much value can be protected.To the current pig main contract 2205 contract as an example, the current position has 60,000 hands, each hand needs about 34,000 yuan, so we can calculate the capacity of the futures market to 2 billion margin, then the spot is 20 billion.Theoretically short hedging spot traders can solve the price fluctuations of nearly 20 billion yuan spot hogs.So it has been felt that futures have been discount to spot, will have a rebound reason is not appropriate, because spot traders have a large number of positions waiting to be shorted in futures, once they in the futures short hedging position is sufficient, spot falls on them will not cause too much loss.Talk so much, began to talk about 14000 in the end is not the bottom of the problem comes, since the spot traders have been analyzed if the futures are not afraid of falling prices, so why will there be a big rebound before and after the Spring Festival?At present, there are two reasons. First, soybean meal price rose sharply, bringing the mood of pigs to rise, and the second National Development and Reform Commission released the warning of excessive pig price decline also boosted the mood of pigs.As a matter of fact, the purchase and storage procedure will be initiated only when the pig price falls excessively to the first level, and it takes 21 days from the second level to the first level. If the pig price continues to fall excessively during this time, the purchase and storage procedure will be triggered in early March.And the pig grain ratio is the main basis of excessive decline.Soybean meal, the main raw material of pig feed, or attributed to soybean meal has risen.Here we know that the reason for the rise in pigs is in fact soybean meal continued to rise, and continued to rise will increase the cost of raising pigs, will also trigger the acquisition of storage, thus generating more profits.If stockpiling fails to solve the problem of the pig ration ratio, stockpiling will increase, so that the price of pigs will rise or the price of grain will fall.So do you empty out the corn meal?Or buy pigs?Or both operations together?Futures trading