Pig price drops dive, when usher in rise inflection point?News at last!Pig prices on February 11
At the beginning, Uncle Rui still brings you the latest developments of today’s pig market as usual.According to the latest data: today’s national average pig price is 12.56 yuan/kg, compared with yesterday’s 0.55 yuan/kg, the decline continues to increase;Now although it was just after the 10th, the fifteenth day of the first and a few days time, pigs are also immersed in the atmosphere of the Chinese New Year, but has slowly open market marketing activities, particularly around the slaughtering enterprises, has been fully operative, when on the right track, fear or happened before the Spring Festival, a diving down has been struck.From the point of view of the national pig market, since the market returned to normal, slaughtering enterprises also showed their true features and started the pace of comprehensive price reduction. Meanwhile, with the progress of these two days, the range of price reduction suddenly became larger, with an average decline of about 0.5 yuan/kg, and the latest quotation fell straight down.And market perspective, from a terminal market consumption continues to present situation, weaker overall enthusiasm has some deviation, and the unfavorable situation of wholesale market has been even more ious KaiBang prices continue to fall, which is one of the factors causing prices falling, although cheap pork, but market merchants receiving positive heart still is not high, market malaise is very obvious.In fact, before the Spring Festival, I had foreboding the difficulties after the Spring Festival, and had been reminding everyone that this was not to show off ideas. The main reason was that pig prices were so weak before the Spring Festival, but after the Spring Festival, pig prices lost important consumption support, how could they get better?However, recently the pig price ushered in a sharp drop, although the north has begun to pressure the barrier resistance price signs, can delay the pace of pig price decline, even a little rise, but ultimately can not change the continuous decline of the pig price trend.So the only way to change that is to wait for a new upturn in the cycle. But when?From my personal point of view, if the reduction of capacity goes well, basically in the fourth quarter, there is a possibility of pig price inflection point.Because there are two factors to support it;1. According to the time span of pig cycle, which is generally 4 years, this year is just the fourth year of the rising cycle started in 2018, so if there is no accident, the fourth quarter of this year is a complete cycle, and it is also the inflection point of the rising time.2. Another key factor is the problem of reducing production capacity. Only when production capacity is reduced, can the turning point of the rise be met.At the same time, the regulatory level is also active deployment, is expected to drop to 41 million in the second quarter.Therefore, the continuous decline in the number of fertile sows shows that the overcapacity reduction is in an orderly way. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is still a great hope for the inflection point.