The Year of the Tiger!6 days pig price increases expand, north and South floating red increase, pig spring has come?
Suddenly, more than half of New Year holiday is over, busy for a year of the pig friends, at this moment may still immersed in a strong atmosphere of Spring Festival, but working friend have embark on a journey of migrant workers returned to the city, in the face of the New Year, everyone is a punch cha, hoped to make some achievements, but after the 2021 swine, depressed,There are also many pig farmers also a lot of confusion!However, in everyone’s confusion, the pig market has ushered in a new change, the year of the tiger, pig prices are also good luck all the way high, greatly boosted the confidence of pig farmers.What’s going on here?Pig prices out of the doldrums?Is spring coming for pig farmers?Let’s discuss it briefly.Prices rally to expand, the wave red increased after an unexpected rise in prices, really a bit surprising, but continue to focus on prices friends should know that the prices rebound wave red actually comes is not a surprise, as early as the late last year, a few days time, prices has been falling signs of stabilisation, 28, 29 consecutive day wave red rose,It shows that pig prices may not go the usual way after the year.Sure enough, the beginning of the New Year, pig prices in the Year of the Tiger, high open high, although there was a shock callback in the middle, but has always maintained a rise more fall less situation.As of February 6, the pig price increase gradually expanded, the increase range has been involved in a number of pig production areas in the North and south, according to the data released by the pig price system, the national average price of three yuan has broken 7 yuan/jin, came to 14.25 yuan/kg mark, increased by 0.13 yuan/kg yesterday, pig grain ratio returned to 5.2:1.Among them, the rising pig prices are mainly concentrated in northeast, North China, South China, central China and other most provinces, among which the northeast region is floating red, a one-day increase of 0.05, south China, north China, the increase expanded, a one-day increase of 0.05~0.1 yuan/catty, central China rising sharply, a one-day increase of 0.15 yuan, slaughterers quoted 6.9~7.5 yuan/catty.In contrast, the range of pig price decline gradually shrinking, only in central China, Hunan, Hebei, Yunnan parts of the small callback, the single-day decline range maintained at 0.05~0.15 yuan/catty, pig prices have bottomed out of the signs of rebound.Pig prices out of the doldrums?Why does it continue to rise?Did pig price walk out of depressed period?At present, it is hard to say, but through continuous observation in the recent period of time, I believe that the strong rebound of pig prices after the New Year is probably inseparable from the following main factors: 1.Although it is still in the holiday period, with the opening of the “start tide” of factories and the increase of migrant workers returning to the city for work, the market pork consumption gradually picked up, downstream traders increased stock, market meat dealers opened, the whole pork market began to circulate, pork consumption led to the stabilization and rebound of pig prices in the short term.Slaughterers began to collect more pigs.Due to the instability of pig prices, slaughterers were not enthusiastic about stocking up their pork. Moreover, the Spring Festival came earlier this year, and many slaughterers had a holiday in advance. As a result, the stock of pork in the market was limited.Now, with the resumption of production of enterprises, pork inventory has been almost digested, and pork supply is tight in the short term. In order to ensure the supply of pork in the market, slaughterers have started slaughtering and resumed slaughtering one after another, increasing the purchase amount of live pigs, driving pig prices to continue to rise.3, of course, one of the most important still is pig farmers market point of view, on the one hand, due to previous prices depressed, selling continues to appear, most of the farmers of pig have been selling a similar result in years supply of live pigs, on the other hand, because the current prices are still offline breeding cost, plus farmers still in holiday atmosphere,The lack of enthusiasm for the sale of pigs has made it more difficult for slaughterers to collect pigs. It is difficult for slaughterers to purchase pigs in areas with tight supply of pigs, so they have to raise the price appropriately to collect pigs.Is spring coming for pig farmers?Factory in the short term, with the “tide” to come, and the emergence of the live pig market availability, prices rose concussion may continue for a period of time, but spring is coming, say pig is likely to be premature, words although a bit ugly, but that’s an actual situation, at present there are at least three difficulties in our pig farmers years ago!1, pig production capacity is still growing inertia.Last year, pig prices were depressed, the pig industry fell to the bottom, large and small pig farms suffered a heavy blow, have entered the elimination, but due to the late strong rebound in pig prices, capacity reduction effect is limited, pig inventory continued to grow.According to data released by the industry, by the end of 2021, the number of live pigs in China is 449.22 million, up 10.5% year on year. Not only that, the number of breeding sows has also reached 43.29 million, up 4% year on year. Breeding sows are the vanguard of pig supply.Not only is production capacity not shrinking, but it is growing consistently, which means that for at least the first quarter, the supply of hogs will remain at a higher level than usual for this time of year.Strong supply and weak demand will continue for a long time.Pig production capacity keeps increasing, pork supply means there will be more and more, but the pork consumption situation is really not optimistic after the New Year.After the Spring Festival, pork enters the traditional off-season. With the gradual departure of the Spring Festival holiday and the increase of warmer days, pork consumption demand will decrease significantly.Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the catering industry as a whole is limited, and the phenomenon of oversupply in the pork market will gradually emerge. According to the market rules in previous years, at least before the third quarter, the fundamentals of weak pork will be difficult to change, which is not conducive to the subsequent rebound of pig prices.2. Breeding costs remain high.Pig prices are rising, but breeding costs remain high.As the stock of corn has basically bottomed out, the market is bullish. In addition, waterlogging has a great impact last year, the cost of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has risen, and farmers at the grass-roots level are anxious to resist prices and have a high mood to sell corn. Until now, there are still half of the grain source concentrated in the hands of farmers.In addition to the limited stock of grain enterprises before the year, most of them are picked with the use, and the signal of the construction of the national bank to support the city is obvious, once the phenomenon of corn even rises, then the food war will be imminent, driving the corn price gradually higher, increasing the cost of raising pig farmers.Therefore, in general, the beginning of the year of the Tiger pig market went up, although there is a certain positive support for the rebound of pig prices, but limited by the actual situation of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices continue to rise limited space, with the holiday away, the low season of consumption is coming, can not rule out the possibility of pig prices and shock bottom fall.Add corn price thickly accumulate hair, feed cost is high, the spring of pig farmer is fashionable far, the pig farmer that considers start also should be careful and cautious, must not be heady, blind development!What do you think about that?What do you think of the pig industry this year?Can we develop it?Please leave comments and discuss.